Chaos is the rule of the day, with markets, companies, governments and individuals being rapidly buffeted by events and change.... more

Despite centuries of experience designing and playing war games, there is still very little rigorous research on how to evaluate... more

Humans hate uncertainty, which means we are constantly looking for means to narrowly consider the future and its implications. Planning,... more

AI and democracy are in great tension with each other. AI models are built by a priesthood of research specialists,... more

Amidst the upheaval in Washington, D.C. these days, one of the most notable and controversial decision from the second Trump... more

There are two sides of America. One is the country’s world-leading innovation centers, which offer the highest salaries and potential... more

Cruel, petty and occasionally magnanimous, fates rule our lives, determining everything from our careers and romances to our financial success.... more

When Russia launched its war on Ukraine in early 2022, it became the first land battle on European soil since... more

There’s a growing movement to apply the best practices of technology to the U.S. government. Whether it’s Elon Musk and... more

It’s been a bad few months (and years and decades) for the global commons. Chinese trawlers have repeatedly knocked out... more

The Washington Consensus of the past few decades that called for open markets, free trade and reduced regulation will officially... more

When we think of booms and busts, we often think of waste. The dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and... more

It’s been a year for the record books, and so it is with the Riskgaming podcast. We published 68 episodes... more

We are really excited to announce the publication of our third and latest Riskgaming scenario, "Powering Up: China’s Global Quest... more

Recently in the Riskgaming newsletter (“The Productivity Precipice”), host Danny Crichton wrote about one of the biggest challenges facing America:... more

Every quarter, Lux sends an update to our limited partners observing the macroeconomic environment, the changes in venture capital, and... more

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world.... more

It’s not every day that we can get our distributed Riskgaming team into one podcast studio, but we actually managed... more

Anduril has become one of the most-watched companies in Silicon Valley, and for good reason. Its vertiginous rise from small... more

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world.... more

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world.... more

We’re really excited to talk about the launch of our second public Riskgaming scenario, “DeepFaked and DeepSixed: AI Election Security... more

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world.... more

The automobile industry is one of the most pivotal in the world, both due to its scale and its nexus... more

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world.... more

China’s pivot from open to closed over the past decade has been striking. It wasn’t so long ago that tens... more

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world.... more

China’s vertiginous rise over the past three decades has finally dawned on the Washington DC foreign policy blob. The hopes... more

Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world.... more