Down Round

Everything is chatbots now. Every company must become a purveyor of bespoke chatbots.The latest cab off the rank is Meta, which just unveiled Llama 3, the latest version of its open source LLM. But this time they have integrated it deeply into Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram, whacking a big nasty chatbox over the searchbar in all these apps. In this episode, we talk about Meta's strategy in AI, and what Zuck might be cooking. Links The Dwarkesh pod with Zuckerberg Down Round on X Down Round on Instagram Down Round on TikTok See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a free preview of a premium episode. To subscribe to Down Round Premium and get access, head here. As Downies will know well, one of the themes we're keeping an eye on is the number of products and product categories that are trying to replace the smartphone, which has been lagging in sales and hype of late. Two devices which pitched a bold new path forward are the Humane AI Pin and the Apple Vision Pro. Based on reviews, neither of them are looking very good at all. We discuss. Links Humane AI Pin review: not even close – The Verge See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the past few weeks, there has been a surprising amount of movement in the AI music space. Suno and Udio are two lavishly funded AI music generation startups which just launched new models, which allow you to make songs in a wide range of genres from prompts. While not perfect, they both sound pretty good. At the same time, Spotify is trialling AI-generated playlists, seemingly laying the groundwork for their own generative music. In this ep, we talk about the new models and what they might be used for. Links AI-Music Arms Race: Meet Udio, the Other ChatGPT for Music - Rolling Stone Former Google DeepMind researchers launch AI-powered music creation app Udio See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we're joined by Kyle Harrison, who is General Partner at Contrary, a US venture capital fund. As well as investing, Kyle writes the newsletter Investing 101 2.0, where he shares his various insights into the VC ecosystem – including where, in his view, it's all gone wrong. Kyle joins us to chat about the state of VC after the end of the tech boom, why he doesn't think anyone has learned their lesson, and what he thinks will happen with AI on both the tech and the investment side. Links The Puritans of Venture Capital – Kyle Harrison See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a free preview of a premium episode. To subscribe to Down Round Premium and get access, head here. Sometimes a company merges with or acquires another, and it turns out to be a bad idea. That's OK. We all make stupid decisions. There's nothing to be ashamed of, even when we're talking about multibillion-dollar deals. Some of these bad acquisitions aren't just about a culture mismatch or poor due diligence, though. Some of them speak to executives making a bet on the future of the economy – and betting wrong. In this ep, we go through some of the worst tech acquisitions of all time, and why they're interesting.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the great turnarounds in 21st century was the tobacco industry's shift toward a so-called 'smokeless' future – agreeing that cigs are pretty bad for you, and that a range of hi-tech vapes could be a less bad replacement. Of course, it hasn't actually worked out that well, with public health bodies and governments around the world cracking down on vapes for targeting kids with flashy influencer marketing campaigns and cool flavours. In this ep we talk about the rise of vapes, the changing tobacco industry, and new trends (Zyn, etc)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a free preview of a premium episode. To subscribe to Down Round Premium and get access, head here. This week, we're back on Apple. There are two big reasons: one, they're being sued by the United States on antitrust grounds. And secondly, multiple news reports suggest they are looking for a partner in the generative AI space – which might be Google, or Anthropic, or any number of others. We dig into these two stories, and what they say about the current state of tech – and why AI might be at a low point of the hype cycle.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last week, it was reported that Elon Musk's Neuralink had successfully allowed a patient to play chess with his mind. It represents a small – and maybe a tad overhyped – step towards the company's goal for a full brain computer interface. In this ep, we discuss Neuralink, brain-computer interfaces, and exactly what Musk and others in the space are trying to achieve. Also, the big question: who is the market? Links Elon Musk wants to merge humans with AI. How many brains will be damaged along the way? – Vox Elon's tweet about 'Blindsight' See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a free preview of a premium episode. To subscribe to Down Round Premium and get access, head here. Dropbox. There's a name you probably haven't thought about in a while. Once among the hottest startups on Earth, it lost some of its lustre once every major company in the world began offering consumer and enterprise cloud storage. But it's still alive, kicking and profitable – and making a pivot to AI. In this ep, we talk about Dropbox and the other cloud storage businesses of the 2000s and 2010s, and why they're between a rock and a hard place.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week we're looking at BYD, the Chinese battery maker turned electric vehicle behemoth, which is now the world's biggest EV maker. Following on from our premium episode about the Apple Car a couple of weeks ago, we talk about the current state of the EV market, how BYD found success, and why the world is still relatively slow on the uptake of electric cars. Always remember: build your dreams, folks. Links Tesla overtaken by China’s BYD as world’s biggest EV maker – FT See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Well folks, it's happening again. The US is threatening to ban TikTok. A bill is currently worming its way through Congress which would ban the app unless it fully divested itself from ByteDance, its Chinese parent company. This led TikTok to engage battle stations, and launch probably the stupidest PR campaign in recent history. In this episode, we talk TikTok, make predictions about a ban, and pontificate on its effect on politics and culture. Links TikTok Prompts Users to Call Congress to Fight Possible Ban – NY Times As TikTok Ban Looms, ByteDance Battles Oracle For Control Of Its Algorithm – Forbes TikTok Struggles to Protect U.S. Data From Its China Parent – WSJ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a free preview of a premium episode. To subscribe to Down Round Premium and get access, head here. The fabled Apple car – also known as Project Titan – is no more. After working on it for the last 10 years and blowing $10 billion, the company internally announced that it would scrap the project and reassign many of its staff to generative AI. In this ep, we talk about the Apple car project: why it was originally imagined, what it sought to do, and why it ultimately didn't work out.  Links How Apple Sank About $1 Billion a Year Into a Car It Never Built – Bloomberg See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One less discussed angle of the rise of AI and widely available LLMs is the relationship dimension. From ChatGPT's personalisation features to AI chatbots on Meta platforms, through to porn and sexbots, many people are using AI for companionship. It's big business too, with The Information reporting that pornbot providers are one category of AI company which are growing without the need for external investment. To unpack the weird world of AI companionship, some of the rising companies in the space, and what it means for society, we're joined by comedian Tom Cashman. (You can watch his brand new special here.) Links One Class of AI Startups That Can Thrive Without Funding: Porn Chatbots – The Information Snapchat’s new AI chatbot is already raising alarms among teens and parents – CNN ‘Sometimes, It Feels Real’: Character.AI Gives Humans the Chatbots They Desire – The Information Meta’s new AI lets people make chatbots. They’re using it for sex. – Washington Post  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a free preview of a premium episode. To subscribe to Down Round Premium and get access, head here. Nvidia, the graphics card company turned into AI chip powerhouse, posted its earnings at the end of last week. Surprising no one, they were huge – propelling the company even higher up the charts of the most valuable companies on Earth. In this ep, we unpack the earnings and what they mean, as well as talking about Nvidia's future, and even incompetently attempting to put forward a bear case. Links Nvidia posts revenue up 265% on booming AI business – CNBC See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Reddit is going public. After a false start a couple of years ago, the online message board is undergoing the IPO process, setting markets up for the biggest social media IPO since Pinterest in 2019.  The company has filed its S1, which for the first time lets the world peek into Reddit's books, also revealing what it thinks are its biggest risks and opportunities. Join us as we pick through the document for revealing nuggets. Links Reddit S-1 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a free preview of a premium episode. To subscribe to Down Round Premium and get access, head here. The gaming world was ablaze over the past few weeks over reports that Xbox was throwing in the towel and letting some of its biggest exclusive titles go to its eternal rival, the PlayStation. It riled up the Xbox ultras and raised questions about how committed Microsoft is to console gaming – despite its monster $75B acqusition of Activision-Blizzard. It ended up being a little less dramatic than anticipated. But it still raises questions about Microsoft's strategy in gaming, and how the world's biggest company is approaching the rapidly growing -- and increasingly unstable --  gaming market. Links Microsoft is slowly building to a future where ‘every screen is an Xbox - The Verge Microsoft: four Xbox-exclusive games are coming to PS5 and Nintendo Switch – The Verge Sony’s value reportedly dropped by $10 billion following ‘disappointing’ PlayStation financials See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last week, OpenAI announced Sora, its text-to-video model. Only a few people have their hands on it, so all we have to go off are example videos provided by OpenAI. But it looks good – and like a leap forward for AI video creation. This has raised lots of questions. How does it work? How much crap is about to flood our internet feeds? And is Hollywood doomed? All these questions and more are answered to a base level of satisfaction in this episode.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a free preview of a premium episode. To subscribe to Down Round Premiun and get access, head here. The word on the street is that Sam Altman, the once embattled and now seemingly fine CEO of OpenAI, is currently out in the market trying to raise money for a new microchip-related venture. The amount of money he's raising? Seven trillion dollars, which is about 10% of global GDP. In this episode, we discuss the insane computing requirements of a company like OpenAI, and why Sam might be looking to find a new friend other than Nvidia. Links Sam Altman Seeks Trillions of Dollars to Reshape Business of Chips and AI – The Wall Street Journal OpenAI Shifts AI Battleground to Software That Operates Devices, Automates Tasks – The Information See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the big crazes of the last few years was consumer genetic testing. Through services like 23andme and AncestryDNA, regular punters could find out their ethnic background, link up with distant cousins, and find out what mysterious blood illnesses they were genetically predisposed to get. But there is trouble in paradise. 23andme has lost a staggering 98% of its value from its peak, and it has people asking: can you build a real, sustainable business from someone spitting into a tube and mailing to to a lab? We dive in. Links 23andMe’s Fall From $6 Billion to Nearly $0 – The Wall Street Journal See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a preview of a premium episode. We're currently running a sale on Down Round Premium – head here to score an annual membership for $49 instead of $70. Only until Sunday Feb 11. Let's face it: Google Search sucks now. We've talked about it on many episodes, along with the broader conversation about how AI might disrupt it. In this episode, we dig a little deeper. What are the factors that made Google Search so successful, and what are the factors making it no longer fit for purpose? We look at new challengers, like Perplexity, and what Google is doing to prepare for the deprecation of its core business – whenever that may be.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.