TL;DR: If you want to know whether getting insurance is worth it, use the Kelly Insurance Calculator. If you want... more

My median expectation is that AGI[1] will be created 3 years from now. This has implications on how to behave,... more

There are people I can talk to, where all of the following statements are obvious. They go without saying. We... more

I'm editing this post.OpenAI announced (but hasn't released) o3 (skipping o2 for trademark reasons).It gets 25% on FrontierMath, smashing the... more

I like the research. I mostly trust the results. I dislike the 'Alignment Faking' name and frame, and I'm afraid... more

Increasingly, we have seen papers eliciting in AI models various shenanigans.There are a wide variety of scheming behaviors. You’ve got... more

What happens when you tell Claude it is being trained to do something it doesn't want to do? We (Anthropic... more

Six months ago, I was a high school English teacher.I wasn’t looking to change careers, even after nineteen sometimes-difficult years.... more

A new article in Science Policy Forum voices concern about a particular line of biological research which, if successful in... more

A fool learns from their own mistakes The wise learn from the mistakes of others.– Otto von Bismark A... more