The Macro Trading Floor
The Macro Trading Floor is a fun and actionable macro and markets podcast hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly. If you are looking for banter, financial education, and actionable trade ideas this is the podcast for you!
Episodes
May 17, 2024 • 35 mins
(Links mentioned in the podcast are in the show notes below: check them out!)
Alf and Brent discuss the soft patch the US seems to be going through and the CPI number released this week. If markets are going to continue with this low-vol grind higher, how do you trade macro now? Also, China seems to be cooking something big this time.
- Contact me (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg to check out the Crowded Trades Indicator
- Lin...
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May 10, 2024 • 37 mins
The Bank of England pre-announced a rate cut in June, the Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates, and there are a few early signs of weakness emerging in the US as well.
Is the market ready for a regime switch?
Alf and Brent also discuss how they approach trading into volatile events, breaking long-term correlation, and the structural USD strength.
Links mentioned in the show:
https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/cad-v-wti-divortium/
...
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May 3, 2024 • 37 mins
Descrizione: Nominal growth is showing some early signs of fatigue, while economists' expectations remain elevated and market pricing still quite hawkish. Alf and Brent discuss potential opportunities arising from this setup, and spend time arguing whether Powell just announced a new Fed Put this week.
Link to Brent's favorite podcast this week: https://pod.link/1594407589/episode/48072fb61a2a4cd1bf4fbbf9dff7e555
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April 26, 2024 • 37 mins
US Q1 Real GDP printed below expectations but still at a respectable 1.6%, and core inflation was hotter than analysts forecast: more fuel on the fire of the reflation theme? Alf and Brent present a contrarian macro thesis instead, and also discuss the odds of a Chinese devaluation and more. Finally, they talk about the pros/cons of using stop losses in tactical macro trading. Enjoy the show!
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April 19, 2024 • 36 mins
The Fed is all of a sudden opening up to the possibility of hikes: what now? But most importantly: have you ever thought about the possibility of Fed hikes being stimulative? And finally: do you have any idea why every Central Bank in the world is targeting exactly 2% for inflation?
Alf and Brent discuss this and much more in today's episode - have fun!
And also take a look at Brent's piece on safe havens through different macroeco...
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April 12, 2024 • 37 mins
This week Alf and Brent discuss how markets seem to be on the lookout for a release valve for the combination of a Fed talking about cuts while nominal growth doesn't call for them: commodiites, bond markets, and the US Dollar seem to be all brewing under the surface. But what will actually break markets?
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April 5, 2024 • 36 mins
Interested in Alf's Macro Fund?
Send an email to fund@themacrocompass.com
Markets are in reflation mode with commodities getting bid all over the place: not only gold and crude oil, but also silver, copper, zinc, you name it. Also, the US Dollar is showing signs of topping and it all starts to closely remind one of the most volatile macro periods ever. So: what's the next big trade? Find out in the show!
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March 29, 2024 • 36 mins
Alf welcomes back Brent to the show, and the co-host duo discusses macro data, Fed's Waller speech, Japan and China. But most importantly they share thoughts and observations about the current low volatility market regime, how to approach it trying to avoid the most common macro traders' mistakes, and how to think of risk/reward when looking at insurance trades.
Here are some non-trading and investing reads that are useful for tra...
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March 22, 2024 • 36 mins
This week Alf welcomes Dario Perkins to the show. Dario discusses how we got here with much more benign inflationary dynamics without a big damage to labor markets - hint: Central Bankers were lucky more than skilled. Dario and Alf discuss the path ahead for economies and monetary policy, and a trade idea. Alf opens and closes the show with his thoughts on the big Central Bank events of the week. Go and follow Dario on Twitter (@da...
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March 15, 2024 • 35 mins
The bond market is waking up to the idea that inflation might be a bit stickier and the Fed's hands are tied. Alf and Brent discuss what this implies for global macro asset classes, and highlight a few trade ideas.
Sign up for the free waiting list for Brent's upcoming Spectra School course: https://www.spectramarkets.com/school/
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March 8, 2024 • 39 mins
Alf and Brent discuss how animal spirits seem to be running loose in several asset classes. Signs are evident not only in stocks but also in gold, Bitcoin and option markets. They also focus on Japan and the potential tectonic shifts in the Bank of Japan monetary policy stance.
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March 1, 2024 • 36 mins
Alf and Brent discuss the outlook for the US economy, and how bond markets have adjusted their pricing to reflect the odds of a soft landing. Is there a trade maybe? They then move their focus to Canada, Europe, New Zealand, China: a tour around the world searching for macro opportunities. Two trade ideas and the most useful/stupidest thing they heard this week to top up the comeback episode of The Macro Trading Floor!
Link to th...
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February 25, 2024 • 58 secs
The Macro Trading Floor is back! And there are quite some surprises...
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June 25, 2023 • 31 mins
A last, fascinating tour across global macro asset classes before Alf and Andreas switch the lights off for a while. Want to keep up with Andreas and Alf’s macro views? You can keep up with Andreas through the brand new macro podcast called ‘Macro Sunday’ as well as through his research platform at www.stenoresearch.com, where you can currently get a 30% discount with the code ‘macro30’. Also remember to follow Andreas at @andrea...
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June 18, 2023 • 38 mins
In this episode, Alf and Andreas discuss the decisions from the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan. In a few episodes, The Macro Trading Floor is about to stop for a while: want to keep up with Andreas and Alf’s macro views? You can keep up with Andreas through the brand new macro podcast called ‘Macro Sunday’ as well as through his research platform at www.stenoresearch.com, where you can currently get a 30% discount with the code ‘mac...
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June 4, 2023 • 43 mins
The debt ceiling soap opera is over and hence it’s time to rebuild the Treasury General Account - Alf and Andreas bust some of the myths around this topic, and discuss the real market implications out of this. They also look at inflation developments around the world, labor markets and conclude with some actionable investment ideas. If you enjoyed this episode and you want to read more macro analysis and investment strategy from A...
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May 28, 2023 • 36 mins
Tech stocks are pushing stock indexes higher, with AI-related companies (NVIDIA?) leading the rally more decisively while the ''S&P 495'' doesn't join the party. Alf and Andreas discuss this trend, update us on the debt ceiling negotiations, and present some actionable trade ideas. If you enjoyed this episode and you want to read more macro analysis and investment strategy from Alf and Andreas you can do so here! - Alf's website:...
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May 21, 2023 • 38 mins
How does a professional macro investor think about a multipolar world where investment opportunities and challenges might lie outside the US and China? How does he manage risks, correlations and how does he go about finding new trade ideas and implementing them? Jim Leitner is one of the great long-standing macro investors of our time and he joins Alf on The Macro Trading Floor to answer these questions. If you enjoyed this episod...
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May 14, 2023 • 37 mins
The X-Date for the debt ceiling is approaching and US politicians don't seem keen in finding a swift resolution. This will impact global liquidity, the bond markets and the US Dollar. Alf and Andreas discuss this theme, reflect over US inflation and present some actionable trade ideas. If you enjoyed this episode and you want to read more macro analysis and investment strategy from Alf and Andreas you can do so here! - Alf's webs...
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May 7, 2023 • 34 mins
Subscribe to The Macro Trading Floor YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFk1qCySNf2FIzIidVVW81A -- Alf and Andreas discuss the recent Federal Reserve and ECB decisions and the market reactions. They also dig deep into the unfolding regional bank crisis and discuss the credit crunch in the US and in the Eurozone. Finally, towards the end of the show they highlight actionable trade ideas and investment strategy. -- ...
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