Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work Bubble Trouble

Who doesn’t like to talk about Twitter and Tweets? Word of mouth (or tweet) is the secret sauce of its success. But has it ever been successful? And if it hasn’t, how do you gauge the impact of Elon Musk’s shock therapy over the past two years? Journalist Kurt Wagner joins to share his deep dive profile of the tortured history of Twitter.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
This episode of Bubble Trouble features a conversation with Bloomberg journalist Kurt Wagner, author of 'Battle for the Bird,' a book about Twitter's tumultuous history and evolution, particularly under Elon Musk's ownership. The hosts, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, delve into Twitter’s origins, its struggle to monetize effectively compared to giants like Meta, and the significant influence of Jack Dorsey’s leadership style on the platform's direction. They discuss the platform's missed opportunities, such as Vine and Periscope, and how it became a place where 'good ideas go to die.' The discussion also covers Musk's takeover, his attempts to transform Twitter into 'X', and the challenges of balancing free speech with the need for content moderation and advertiser appeal. Wagner shares insights on the potential future of 'X', the impact of Musk's leadership on the platform's advertising and user engagement, and the skepticism surrounding the 'everything app' concept Musk envisions.
00:00 Introduction
01:02 Part One
01:02 Deep Dive with Kurt Wagner: The Story of Twitter
02:36 The Origins and Evolution of Twitter
06:20 Twitter's User Base and Business Model Explored
09:10 The Challenges of Twitter's Business Model
14:10 Board Dynamics and Google's Influence on Twitter
18:03 Extravagant Spending and Corporate Culture at Twitter
21:13 Reflections on Twitter's Stock Performance
23:47 The Almost Disney-Twitter Deal: A Glimpse into Corporate Negotiations
24:29 Twitter's Quest for a Savior and Its Struggle for Independence
25:53 Missed Opportunities: The Story of Vine and Periscope
27:27 Part Two
27:27 Transition to Part Two: The Elon Musk Era at Twitter
27:49 The Challenges of Rebranding Twitter to X and Musk's Controversial Leadership
28:32 The Impact of Elon Musk's Actions on Twitter's Ad Revenue and Brand Safety
36:52 The Struggle with Bots and Spam: Has It Gotten Worse?
40:06 Free Speech Under Musk: A Double-Edged Sword
44:26 The Everything App Ambition: A Skeptical View
46:33 Closing Thoughts and Acknowledgements
47:01 Credits


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Today, we welcome back Feargal Sharkey, who visited Bubble Trouble last summer and dropped a (water) bomb on our privatized utilities. He’s fought the noble fight to expose Thames Water as  profiteering polluters. Nine months later we have a massive credit bubble bursting, dumping toxic sewage in both debt laden shell companies and the real shit floating in our rivers and seas, while private equity owners took out £78bn of dividends since privatization kicked in. A warning: this conversation should make everyone angry, whether you draw a drink, go for a wild swim, or just watch your rising water bill - asking how this utility privatization bubble caused so much trouble.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
This episode of Bubble Trouble features hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page, with return guest Fergal Sharkey, discussing the failing state of privatized water companies in England. Highlighted are the issues of excessive dividends extracted by private equity owners, the massive debt incurred by water companies, regulatory failures, and the environmental costs of pollution. Sharkie shares his firsthand experiences with water pollution and regulatory battles. The episode delves into the implications of privatization on public resources, the potential for nationalization, and the urgent need for systemic reform in water management amidst mounting public outrage and the looming crisis of water scarcity in London. The conversation encapsulates the complexities of privatization, the financial engineering driving the water industry's woes, and the palpable need for political and regulatory intervention.
00:00 Introduction
00:55 Introducing Repeat Guest Fergal Sharkey: A Deep Dive into Water Industry Woes
00:59 Part One
01:28 Fergal Sharkey's Journey: From Fly Fishing to Fighting Water Privatization
03:27 The Alarming State of England's Privatized Water Industry
06:47 Investigative Journalism and the Mainstream Media's Role
07:44 Exploring the Nationalization Debate and Its Complexities
11:06 Regulatory Failures and the Environmental Catastrophe
14:27 The Financial Quagmire: Debt, Dividends, and the Dire State of Infrastructure
22:00 Addressing the Bondholders: A Call for Accountability
27:12 Part Two
27:12 Looking Ahead: Solutions and the Future of Water Privatization
31:49 The Inefficiency of Global Success
32:11 System-Level Solutions for Water Management
33:14 The Looming Water Crisis in London
34:01 Government's Role in Managing the Water Industry
34:42 The Financial Challenge of Securing London's Water Supply
35:27 Reforming the Water Industry: A Shift in Earnings and Management
35:59 Empathy for the Regulator and the Need for Investment
41:10 Nationalizing the Water Companies: A Strategic Move
47:04 Political Pressure and Regulatory Challenges
49:42 Privatization's Failures and Future Directions
55:20 Concluding Thoughts and the Public's Role
57:34 Credits


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This week we turn our attention back to private markets where Richard’s prior smoke signals may be bearing fruit. That is, we’re getting reports that private equity is playing pass the parcel: selling assets to themselves that they can’t exit and doing so at their own valuations. Marking your own homework? Delaying a bubble that’s sure to burst? Or is it simply remortgaging from one bank to another. [Repeat from October, 2023.]
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This week we have a distinguished guest with an estimable track record at calling out the machinations and malfeasance behind the numbers: Stephen Clapham, the driving force of Behind the Balance Sheet, a podcast of the same name and education company. Stephen helps teach fund managers and others the tricks of financial chicanery and magical massaging of the numbers. (Repeat from July, 2024.)
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Our recent episode on Reddit was a surprise hit, as was the stock - temporarily - so we’ll be diving into that and much more. This week, a look at the volatile nature of financial markets with discussions around recent events, critiquing the creator economy, speculative frenzy in cryptocurrencies, and tech market overvaluation. 
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer dive into discussions about financial market volatility and the phenomenon of market bubbles, touching on topics like the recent Reddit IPO and the cryptocurrency crisis exemplified by FTX’s fallout. They critically assess the risk and reality of investments, using illustrative examples to underline the often speculative nature of today’s financial markets. They also segue into discussions on the creator economy, the disruptive potential of AI and chips in the movie industry, and concerns around the instability of personal debt amidst rising interest rates. The episode concludes with recommendations for insightful reads, exploring themes from technological impacts on society to the resilience needed in today's challenging world.
00:02 Introduction
00:38 Part  One
06:17 The Reality of Stock Market Manias and Personal Debt
08:25 Exploring the Trump SPAC and the Fate of Cameo
12:45 The Crypto Conundrum: Skepticism Meets Reality
16:52 Part Two
16:52 Navigating the Creator Economy and Tech Innovations at SXSW
22:19 The Economic Impact of Data Centers
22:46 AMD's Influence in the Film Industry
23:31 The Challenges of AI in Hollywood
24:38 Chip Makers: The New Brand Ambassadors
25:31 Rethinking the Creator Economy
26:46 The Long Tail Dilemma in the Creator Economy
27:48 The Misconception of Loyalty in the Digital Age
31:49 Music Industry's Paradox: Growth vs. Sustainability
33:43 Inflation's Impact on the Music Industry
36:43 Easter Reading Recommendations
41:28 Closing Thoughts and Future Episodes


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This week we speak with Bill Raduchel, who has served as a high-level executive and strategic adviser for organizations such as Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox, McGraw-Hill, and the Salvation Army. Over half a century working with systems, software, and networks, he has remained at the forefront of the technology revolution in media, education, and corporate governance including recognition at Sun as CIO of the Year and the top CFO in the computer industry and at AOL as CTO of the year. He holds more than fifty issued patents as well as a PhD in econometrics from Harvard, where he taught for five years with John Kenneth Galbraith. He has been writing software in some form since he turned fifteen years old in 1961. He is also the author of The New Technology State. This book is about society—how it has changed and what technology is enabling us to do to ourselves.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in a deep dive conversation with guest Bill Raduchel, exploring his extensive 60-year career transitioning from chemical engineering to economics, and eventually into the tech and media industries. Raduchel discusses his views on conventional wisdom, the evolution of technology, and its implications on economics, suggesting that technology has outpaced neoclassical economic theories due to its scaling properties and the significance of information. He shares insights from his book and experiences, addressing issues like tech debt, government staffing challenges in the face of rapid technological advancements, and the potential impact of AI on the future of software development. The episode covers the dynamic between big tech companies, government regulation, and the inevitable challenges posed by significant shifts towards AI and increased power demands. Raduchel also presents intriguing ideas on innovating government structures and discusses the practicalities of managing a rapidly evolving tech landscape.
00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: A Skeptical Conversation
00:46 A Journey Through Tech and Economics
06:23 The Evolution of Technology and Its Impact on Economics
08:02 The Writing Process and Insights into Bill's Book
11:21 Exploring the New Technology State and Government Challenges
17:43 The Intricacies of Tech Talent and Government Staffing
19:53 Tech Debt and the Challenges of Modernization
25:55 The Global Tech Landscape: Government and Private Sector Dynamics
25:55 Wrapping Up Part One and Teasing Part Two
25:55 Simplifying UK Government Websites: A Double-Edged Sword
25:55 The Dangers of Centralization and Cybersecurity
26:10 Big Tech, Government, and the Quest for Regulation
27:59 The Talent Gap in Government and Tech Regulation Challenges
29:15 Innovative Solutions andthe Power of Decentralization
30:15 The Role of Startups in Tech Innovation and Employee Motivation
31:59 Google's Management Revolution: Lessons in Innovation
34:45 The Complexities of Regulating Big Tech
40:05 Navigating the Future of AI and Government Regulation
42:19 Economics, Education, and the Future Workforce
44:56 Smoke Signals: Warning Signs in Tech and Regulation
50:06 Credits


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